Peak Oil, Alternative Energy
and the Consumer Driven Conservation Movement

Greg Rock

Sustainability Engineer

Co-Owner of The Green Car Company

What is Peak Oil?

• Basic Phenomenon
• Oil Discovery Peaks
• Oil Production Peaks
• Historical Example
• U.S. Lower 48
• M. King Hubert

1930 U.S. Oil Discoveries Peak

1972 U.S. Oil Production Peaks

Demand has overrun Discoveries

1980 we started consuming more oil each year than we discovered

Today we consumes 5x more oil each year than we discover

World Oil Discoveries Peaked 1962

World Oil Production

Excess Production Capacity

Excess Capacity Dropped from 8.2% to 1.2% in 3 years

When is Peak Oil?

• Most Experts say 2010 +/- 5 years
• Of the 54 major oil producing nations 36 have all ready peaked
• World Oil discoveries peaked in 1962
• Rapidly declining Excess Capacity
• 3 different types of mathematical analysis all converging on the same date
• My Economic Analysis

Peak Natural Gas
One-Two Punch

• 2002 North America first continent to reach Natural Gas Production Peak
• Every power plant built over last 20 years is Nat. Gas Fired
• Nat. Gas used for home heating and fertilizer production
• World LNG Market??
• Compress and cool to -260 degrees Fahrenheit
• Expensive: 2 billion for one train

Consequences

• Rising and Volatile Energy Prices
• Economic Impact
• Rising Costs for:
• Personal Vehicle Fuel, Food, Home Heating, Mortgages, Plastics, Pharmaceuticals, Transporting all goods
• Demand Destruction
• Resource Wars
• Competition between Consuming Nations
• Consuming Nations invading Producing Nations
• Civil War between producing nations for control
• Nuclear Proliferation

Break

Then Alternative Energy Sources

Clean Renewable
Alternatives

• Oil
• Biodiesel, Ethanol
• Close the Carbon Loop
• Natural Gas
• Methane Digesters
• Close the Waste Loop
• Electricity
• Wind, Solar, Hydro, Tidal, Geothermal

Dirty and Dangerous
Alternatives

• Oil
• Tar Sands, Coal to Liquid, Oil Shale, Gas to Liquid
• 2^{nd law of thermodynamics}
• ^{Layered Carbon Dioxide Emissions}

^{(10-40% more CO2 impact per gallon of fuel burned)}

• ^{Natural Gas}
• ^{Coal Bed Methane, LNG}
• ^Electricity
• ^{Coal, Nuclear}

Evaluating Alternative Energy

• Net Energy
• What Rules do we Follow
• Misleading Studies
• Net Energy Profit Ratio (NEPR)
• www.netepr.com
• Different Projects Different Values
• Estimates of Current Net Energy Returns

Conventional Oil: 7:1

Tar Sands, Coal to Liquid 5:1

Biodiesel: 3:1

Ethanol: 1.5:1

Oil Shale: 1:1

The Hirsch Report

D.O.E. Study: Crash Course development of all market ready alternative liquid fuels to fill gap

What is Market Ready?

• Capable of producing 1 MM bpd in the next 5 years
• New plant in Washington (Largest in the world) to produce 100 million gallons per year = 5,000 barrels/day (200 similar plants to equal 1 MM bpd)
• World Consumes 85 MM bpd (.006%)
• U.S. Consumes 21 MM bpd (.025%)

The Hirsch Report

What about Electricity?

Start Crash Program when we Peak

Start Crash Program 10 years Prior to Peak

Challenges

• Shortages no matter what we develop
• Dirty and Dangerous
• Higher NEPR
• Cheaper
• Long time to develop
• Clean Renewables
• Cost More
• Predominantly Produce Electricity
• Long time to develop

Global Warming

• Largest Environmental Challenge we face
• Left unchecked our economy and our government will lead us towards catastrophic global warming

Conservation

• No Supply Side Solutions we Need Demand Side Solutions
• Continued Exponential Growth is Not Sustainable
• We Need to Slow, Stop, and Reduce Exponential Growth

Exponential Growth Example 1

• Coal
• 250 years of supply at current rates of consumption
• 2% exponential growth in Coal Demand Supply shrinks to 90 years
• Coal to Liquid conversion supply shrinks to 60 years

Exponential Growth Example 2

• Solar Energy
• Enough Solar Energy hits the planet each hour to power the entire worlds energy demand for a whole year
• 2% Growth in Energy Demand
• Cover entire planet with 10% efficient PV panels
• 350 years
• Humanity would consume all planetary input energy
• 450 years

Break

Then Solutions

Conservation

• Reducing your Demand for energy
• Lifestyle change
• Turn down thermostat
• Smaller Homes
• Reduce Level of Consumption
• Embodied Energy (food, water, all products)
• Drive Less
• bike, walk, carpool, public transit
• Support the Infrastructure
• Saves you Money

New Urbanism
People, not Auto Orientated Cities

• Copenhagen, Denmark
• Converted their main street into 3 mile Pedestrian only Boulevard
• Tore out 9 parking structures converted them to public squares
• Removed 1-2 lanes from practically every road.
• Used space for wider sidewalks and bike paths.
• Bike orientated traffic lights

Efficiency Gains

• New Technology to allow us to continue doing what we are doing but consume less energy.
• Green Building Design
• Built Green, LEED certification
• Energy Efficient Lighting
• Compact Fluorescents, LED’s
• High Efficiency Vehicles
• Hybrids, Smart Cars, Diesels

Compact Fluorescent Lights
6000 hours of light

• 60 Watt Incandescent Bulb
• 8 bulbs = 6000 hours
• 360 Kwh of electricity
• $.10/kwh = $36
• 8 bulbs @$.75/unit = $6
• Total Cost = $42

• 16 Compact Fluorescent
• 1 bulbs = 6000 hours
• 96 Kwh of electricity
• $.10/kwh = $9.60
• 1 bulbs @$4/unit = $4
• Total Cost = $15.60

Traditional Incandescent Bulbs

Use 3 times as much energy

Produces 3 times as much Carbon Dioxide

Cost home owners 3 times as much to purchase and operate

Compared to Compact Fluorescent

Renewable Energy

• Home
• Solar Hot Water
• Solar PV (Washington State tax Subsidy)
• Bio-Heat from Laurelhurst Oil
• Green UP! Your Electricity
• Alternative Fuel Vehicles
• Biodiesel, Ethanol, Renewable Electricity

What about Hydrogen?

• Not an Energy Source an Energy Carrier
• 98% current production from Nat. Gas
• 2^{nd Law of Thermodynamics}
• ^{Best Case}
• ^{Wind creates Electricity, Electricity creates Hydrogen, Hydrogen creates Electricity, Electricity creates Motion}
• ^{Energy Density and Storage}

Focus on Automobile

• 98% of our Transportation is dependent on Oil
• Green Car Score
• Global Warming
• Fossil Fuel Depletion
• Local Air Pollution

Hybrid vs Biodiesel

• Toyota Prius
• 46 mpg
• Fuel: Gasoline
• GCS = 30
• CO2 = 267 g/mile
• Ffuel = 415 gallons

• VW Golf Tdi
• 42 mpg
• Fuel: B99
• GCS = 65
• CO2 = 61 g/mile
• Ffuel = 150 gallons

Fossil Fuel consumed to travel 20,000 miles

VW Golf running on biodiesel is more than twice as green as Prius

¼ the impact on Global Warming and 1/3 the impact on Fossil Fuel Depletion

Ethanol vs. Biodiesel

• Ethanol
• NEPR = 1.5
• Gas Engine: 20 mpg

(97% of Passenger Vehicles)

100 gal. Fossil Fuel

150 gal. Ethanol

Car Moves 3000 miles

• Biodiesel
• NEPR = 3
• Diesel Engine: (33% more efficient) 27 mpg

100 gal. Fossil Fuel

300 gal. Biodiesel

Car Moves 8000 miles

For the same car, 260% more fossil fuel input required to make the car move if it is powered by a gas engine and ethanol, compared to a diesel engine and biodiesel

Electric Car vs. Electric Car

• Zap Xebra
• 1500 lb City Electric Car
• Top Speed: 40 mph Range: 30 Miles
• 80% of vehicle Trips within 10 miles of home
• 40% of trips within 5 miles of home

Washington State Electricity

• 80% Hydroelectric
• GCS = 80
• CO2 = 28 g/mile
• Ffuel = 40 Gallons Equiv

United States Avg. Electricity

• 52% Coal
• GCS = 35
• CO2 = 162 g/mile
• Ffuel = 263 Gallons Equiv

Quantity of Fossil Fuel Energy burned to move the car 20,000 miles. Value represented as a gallon of gasoline equivalent

Policy

• Support Construction of Energy Efficient Infrastructure. Public Transit, Green Buildings, Bike paths, etc
• Increase Energy Prices
• Eliminate Billions of dollars of tax breaks to big oil Companies (Resource Depletion Allowance)
• Raise the Fuel Tax

Artificially Subsidize Energy Prices (U.S.)

• Gives People incentive to over consume energy
• Slowed growth in alternative energy sector
• Increased Corporate Wealth, while government operates on deficit

Artificially Raise Energy Prices (Europe)

• Gives people incentive to conserve energy
• Made alternative energy sources cost competitive
• Provide revenues which were reinvested in Society

Consumer Driven Conservation Movement

• Government Can NOT Conserve Energy for You
• Most Powerful vote we have is with our Dollar. And we make it every day
• If we don’t buy it, they won’t build it
• If we buy it they will produce it
• Double Edged Sword

How to Do it

• Buy Local !!!
• Buy Organic Food
• Buy Bio-fuels
• Buy Renewable Electricity
• Buy Green Tags
• Boycott: Big Box Stores, Non-Organic Food, Petroleum
• Choose To Buy Less

?? Questions ??

Some of my Websites

• Green Vehicles
• www.greencarco.com
• Peak Oil, Sustainability, and Europe Blog
• www.sustainabilitywatch.com
• Learn about Net Energy Profit Ratio
• www.netepr.com